10/31/08 Zogby, McCain moves in to lead McCain 48%, Obama 47% a 6 point One Day Swing

kolu · #1 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 12:55 AM

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters.

Nov. 1, 2008 (McCain +1)
McCain - 48%
Obama - 47%

Oct. 31, 2008 (Obama +7)
McCain - 43%
Obama - 50%

jenh22 · #2 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 01:03 AM

OH Noes!! Not the NASCAR voters!!

jndhoyt · #3 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 01:07 AM

I guess we will just have to wait and see who crosses the finish line first with the checkered flag.

hambirg · #4 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 01:22 AM

Something interesting that I didn't know is that with 1 week to go in the 1980 election Carter was ahead in the polls by as much as 8pts. We all know that Reagan surged ahead and won on election day. So anything is possible.

kolu · #5 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 01:27 AM

Kerry was way ahead too..right up to the exit polling.

jeanief · #6 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 01:52 AM

Kerry was ahead by 2 percentage points...and that was with a +/_.....I Don't believe that will happen again.

But, here is a listing of a number of polls....and not one (not even Fox News) shows McCain in the lead:

2008 General Election National Poll Results by Pollster: Zogby, Gallup, American Research Group

kolu · #7 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 02:16 AM

We'll know soon enough, huh?

usnamom · #8 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolu

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters.

Nov. 1, 2008 (McCain +1)
McCain - 48%
Obama - 47%

Oct. 31, 2008 (Obama +7)
McCain - 43%
Obama - 50%

You forgot the rest....

"So despite the fact that McCain may be closing in a bit in Pennsylvania, his hopes of winning this election has become really narrow."

And in the electoral college it looks like Obama has 334 and McCain has 185.

2008 Polls - Presidential Election, Latest Political - Democratic Candidate Poll - Tracking Current

grumpy247 · #9 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolu

We'll know soon enough, huh?

I hope you have you Xanax on hand. I think you are going to need it.....

hambirg · #10 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 03:58 PM

I found this kind of interesting. I took it from a post on another board and there was no link to the source so take it as it is:

Quote:

Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter narrowly beat Gerald Ford 50.1 percent to 48 percent. And yet, on Sept. 1, Carter led Ford by 15 points. Just weeks before the election, on Oct. 16, 1976, Carter led Ford in the Gallup Poll by 6 percentage points -- down from his 33-point Gallup Poll lead in August.

Reading newspaper coverage of presidential elections in 1980 and 1984, I found myself paralyzed by the fear that Reagan was going to lose.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat Carter by nearly 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. In a Gallup Poll released days before the election on Oct. 27, it was Carter who led Reagan 45 percent to 42 percent.

In 1984, Reagan walloped Walter Mondale 58.8 percent to 40 percent, -- the largest electoral landslide in U.S. history. But on Oct. 15, The New York Daily News published a poll showing Mondale with only a 4-point deficit to Reagan, 45 percent to 41 percent. A Harris Poll about the same time showed Reagan with only a 9-point lead. The Oct. 19 New York Times/CBS News Poll had Mr. Reagan ahead of Mondale by 13 points. All these polls underestimated Reagan's actual margin of victory by 6 to 15 points.

In 1988, George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis by a whopping 53.4 percent to 45.6 percent. A New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 5 had Bush leading the Greek homunculus by a statistically insignificant 2 points -- 45 percent to 43 percent.

A week later -- or one tank ride later, depending on who's telling the story -- on Oct. 13, Bush was leading Dukakis in The New York Times Poll by a mere 5 points.

Admittedly, a 3- to 6-point error is not as crazily wrong as the 6- to 15-point error in 1984. But it's striking that even small "margin of error" mistakes never seem to benefit Republicans.

In 1992, Bill Clinton beat the first President Bush 43 percent to 37.7 percent. (Ross Perot got 18.9 percent of Bush's voters that year.) On Oct. 18, a Newsweek Poll had Clinton winning 46 percent to 31 percent, and a CBS News Poll showed Clinton winning 47 percent to 35 percent.

So in 1992, the polls had Clinton 12 to 15 points ahead, but he won by only 5.3 points.

In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole 49 percent to 40 percent. And yet on Oct. 22, 1996, The New York Times/CBS News Poll showed Clinton leading by a massive 22 points, 55 percent to 33 percent.

In 2000, which I seem to recall as being fairly close, the October polls accurately described the election as a virtual tie, with either Bush or Al Gore 1 or 2 points ahead in various polls. But in one of the latest polls to give either candidate a clear advantage, The New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 3, 2000, showed Gore winning by 45 percent to 39 percent.

TraciLM · #11 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jenh22

OH Noes!! Not the NASCAR voters!!

Yeah, they're just a bunch of dumb hayseed hicks, huh? They're probably so stupid they won't remember to go vote on Tuesday. Or they'll be too busy watching reruns of the Beverly Hillbillies... Don't underestimate who the Nascar voters are. They are everyday Americans who have a strong sense of pride in their country and what it stands for. Personally I do not watch Nascar but after living in the south a few times w/ the Army, I can tell you there sure are a heck of a lot of NASCAR voters.

truble2301 · #12 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 06:10 PM

There sure are a lot of NASCAR voters. That doesn't mean they're smart. Doesn't mean they're dumb -- but it doesn't mean they're smart, either.

I so admire how you seem to know everything about everyone in every region of the country.

jenh22 · #13 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 06:15 PM

I'm curious how they know which voters are NASCAR fans. I mean is that really one of the questions they ask? If it is, I can't wait to hear what some of the other questions are.

It sounds like a poll you would see on the Onion.

truble2301 · #14 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jenh22

I'm curious how they know which voters are NASCAR fans. I mean is that really one of the questions they ask? If it is, I can't wait to hear some of the other questions are.

It sounds like a poll you would see on the Onion.

ROTFLMAO! You're so right! Do all NASCAR voters vote in unison, just like McCain thought all women would vote for Spendthrift Socialist Sarah the Palin?

dannyboy · #15 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 06:32 PM

I don't really understand the definition of a NASCAR voter. Is it just someone who watches NASCAR races?

TheMoMo · #16 (**permalink**) 11-01-2008, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dannyboy

I don't really understand the definition of a NASCAR voter. Is it just someone who watches NASCAR races?

It's a politically correct way of saying 'redneck' that leaves the labeled population with a warm fuzzy.

Maureen

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