Today's Zogby

truble2301 · #1 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 09:08 AM

Since some people were so intrigued by Zogby's poll of a day or so ago, I'm sure they'll want to hear today's numbers.

Quote:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: One Day Is Not A Trend: Obama Holds His Lead
Obama 49.5%, McCain 43.8%

Released: 11-02-2008

Quote:

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.
Data from this poll is available here

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

Link

The word you're searching for is "outlier."

kvmj · #2 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 10:42 AM

Drudge hyped this poll. Then Fox picked it up and ran all day with it as if it wasn't an outlier.

truble2301 · #3 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 11:25 AM

And . . . silence from the right. I guess we should be grateful!

kolu · #4 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 11:57 AM

Weekends are always low for republicans, they are out doing family things like high school football games, read any stat on it. Sunday night is when republicans are more available.

truble2301 · #5 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 12:21 PM

Keep on thinkin' that. In fact, McCain's doing so well, you might as well just not bother to go out and vote . . .

Because we Dems, we never go out to football games or church or with the family.

nightowlrn · #6 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolu

Weekends are always low for republicans, they are out doing family things like high school football games, read any stat on it. Sunday night is when republicans are more available.

Here is some data to refute your weekend theory. Feel free to find data, other than anectdotal, that supports your "any stat" claim, because I couldn't find it.

"While it's a common claim that weekend polls favor the Democrats, there isn't much hard evidence to support that idea. One of the best studies of this question was conducted by two polling experts at ABC News. Gary Langer and Daniel Merkle looked at the data from ABC's tracking polls for the last three presidential elections. They compared results from people reached on Sunday through Thursday with those reached on Friday and Saturday and found no difference. Among the Sunday-to-Thursday people polled in 2004, 49 percent supported Bush and 46 percent supported Kerry. Polls of the stay-at-home, Friday-to-Saturday crowd produced similar numbers—48 and 46."

Podcast if you care to listen - Are weekend polling numbers really skewed? - By Daniel Engber - Slate Magazine

I didn't get the memo that those who support Obama don't do things on the weekends with their families. How odd, I am on a mailing list and am active volunteering in getting out the vote. Had I known, I wouldn't have gone to a HS football game yesterday. I'm glad it isn't too late to cancel my dinner and movie plans with my kids tonight ...

I look forward to reviewing all your "stats."

jndhoyt · #7 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolu

Weekends are always low for republicans, they are out doing family things like high school football games, read any stat on it. Sunday night is when republicans are more available.

So much for your off the wall comment on "family things" theory. This came straight from McCain/Palin website.

11/2/2008 4:30:00 PM - Peterborough , NH
Straight Talk Town Hall with John McCain in Peterborough, NH
Please join John McCain for a Straight Talk Town Hall in Peterborough, NH on Sunday November 2nd. Special Guest: Red Sox Pitcher, Curt Schilling.

11/2/2008 2:00:00 PM - Columbus , OH
Road to Victory Rally in Columbus, OH
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Columbus, OH on Sunday November 2nd. Doors open at 2:00 p.m.

mom2twins2 · #8 (**permalink**) 11-02-2008, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by truble2301

Because we Dems, we never go out to football games or church or with the family.

Finally! A lib who admits it!

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